El Nino summary

It's been an interesting journey writing this blog so this is just a quick summary of my thoughts on El Niño Southern Oscillation and its importance for water and development in Africa.

Firstly, El Niño Southern Oscillation is a fascinating natural phenomenon, and I've learned so much about how it works and where it impacts in the world. Particularly since El Niño Southern Oscillation occurs in the Pacific Ocean and Africa has no direct connection, it's been interesting for me to learn how something in one part of the world can come to affect regions halfway across the world.

Secondly, recognition of the importance of El Niño Southern Oscillation has been obviously growing; from being closely reported in the news, to even making an appearance on the Ellen Degeneres TV show! I think this is good news for research and for people seeking to understand how climate changes might affect them. The impacts of El Niño and La Niña years can also be used to further understanding of how long-term changes to climate might impact different areas. For example, Epstein (2000) explains how the meteorological changes that occur under El Niño years can simulate changes under warming temperatures and help in assessing the likely impacts. His particular study focuses on health, and how waterborne disease outbreaks are associated with the extreme weather of El Niño that could soon be commonplace due to increasing global temperatures.

Thirdly, with predictions that there will be an increased frequency of El Niño events due to climate change, it is important that research into the potential impacts is further developed. More countries may be affected by future El Niño events, so it is beneficial for all to study the results of historic El Niño events (such as the one just passed/that we're in the middle of this winter) and improve projections of impacts for future El Niño events.

Finally, understanding how El Niño Southern Oscillation events can affect communities is a part of mitigating for future climate changes. As Nick describes in his blog post, building resilience to changing climate is important, particularly for smallholder farmers. Understanding the likely conditions El Niño or La Niña could create is part of this. Therefore, initiatives such as the Gro Futures El Niño Monitoring in Tanzania, are important for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. This initiative looks to measure how heavy rains associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation replenish groundwater resources in Tanzanian wellfields. As stated, this will bring better understanding to sustainable management of the wellfield, as well as inform "strategies for amplifying replenishment". Studies like these are vital to continuing to measure and understand El Niño effects, particularly as they can be linked to high variability that is unsustainable and unpredictable.

El Niño Southern Oscillation events still remain rather mysterious and hard to predict; each El Niño or La Niña year results in different consequences and patterns and the spatial distribution of effects can be difficult to predict. I hope with further studies we will begin to understand this fascinating phenomenon in more depth, and be better equipped to react and plan for its potentially deadly effects.